September 2021 was the second warmest September on record, after September 2020, according to NASA, Copernicus and James Hansen, despite the cooling effect of the current La Niña. Above NASA map shows that the Arctic Ocean was hit severely by high temperatures.
[ from earlier post ] |
- The green trend is based on unadjusted NASA data (1951-1980 base).
- The lilac trend is based on data adjusted by 0.79°C for a 1750 base, for higher polar anomalies and for ocean air temperatures. The lilac trend shows that the 1.5°C threshold was already crossed when the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, while a 3°C could be crossed well before 2050.
- The red trend is based on data adjusted by 1.28°C, adding an extra 0.49°C to the lilac data for a 3480 BC base. The red trend shows that the 2°C threshold was already crossed when the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, while a 5°C anomaly could crossed by 2060.
Within a few years time, sunspots can be expected to reach the peak of their current cycle, and they are looking stronger than forecast, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA.
Furthermore, the next El Niño could raise surface temperatures significantly. The image below indicates that the difference between the top of El Niño and the bottom of La Niña could be more than half a degree Celsius.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released 2020 figures for carbon dioxide (CO₂), which reached 413.2 parts per million (ppm) in 2020, 149% of the 1750 level. Methane (CH₄) reached 1889 parts per billion (ppb) in 2020, 262% of the 1750 level and nitrous oxide (N₂O) reached 333.2 ppb, 123% of the 1750 level.
[ from earlier post ] |
The rise in nitrous oxide levels up the April 2020 is illustrated image on the right, from an earlier post.
Perhaps even more frightening is the situation regarding methane, as illustrated by the combination image below. The MetOp-2 satellite recorded some terrifying methane levels recently. On October 14, 2021 pm, a peak methane level of 4354 ppb was recorded at 293 mb (left panel), while a mean level of 2068 ppb was recorded at 367 mb (right panel). The images show only a partial cover of the globe, so there may be some problems with this satellite, yet it could be an ominous sign of things to come.
Very few methane measurements are available for the Arctic. Measurements are available from only a handful of ground stations, i.e. flask and in situ data at Barrow, Alaska, and flask data at Cold Bay, Alaska, at Ny-Alesund, Svalbard, at Alert, Nunavut, and at Summit, Greenland, while one-off measurements have been taken by vessels and by aircraft, such as at Poker Flats, near Fairbanks, Alaska. Availability of flask data stopped in 1997 at Mould Bay, Northwest Territories, and in 2018 at Tiksi, Russia. Moreover, to monitor methane releases from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, it is essential to have more continuous measurements taken at numerous altitudes by polar-orbiting satellites. And of course, taking measurements alone is not enough to reduce the danger.
Meanwhile, NOAA has put up a notice that IASI data and products from Metop-A (MetOp-2) will no longer update and the satellite will be retired on November 15, 2021.
The magenta color indicates the highest methane levels. The animation shows that magenta-colored areas (with the highest levels) first show up over the Arctic Ocean, close to sea level. When rising up further toward the Tropopause, beyond what the animation shows, even more magenta shows up, with methane moving toward the Equator, as the Tropopause is higher closer to the Equator.
Links
• NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4)
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
• Glasgow Climate Change Conference (COP26)
https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/glasgow-climate-change-conference
• IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways (SR1.5)
https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/
• IPCC AR6
https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/
• Paris Agreement, adopted 2015
https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/12/paris-agreement.html
• WMO – Greenhouse Gas Bulletin: Another Year Another Record
https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=21975
• MetOp satellites
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi/
• Copernicus – methane
https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/cams/methane-forecasts
• September Temperature Update & COP 26 – 14 October 2021 – by James Hansen and Makiko Sato
• NOAA Sunspots
• A comprehensive quantification of global nitrous oxide sources and sinks – by Hanqin Tian et al. (2020)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2780-0
• NOAA Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202109/supplemental/page-4
• Is the IPCC creating false perceptions, again?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/08/is-the-ipcc-creating-false-perceptions-again.html
• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html